Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.003354 0.003684 0.004036 0.004440 0.004893 0.005385 0.005961
2026-01-18 0.002774 0.003232 0.003755 0.004400 0.005179 0.006094 0.007258
2026-01-25 0.002423 0.002934 0.003547 0.004340 0.005350 0.006603 0.008293
2026-02-01 0.002202 0.002752 0.003434 0.004355 0.005578 0.007167 0.009423
2026-02-08 0.002002 0.002567 0.003291 0.004299 0.005690 0.007571 0.010360
2026-02-15 0.001825 0.002392 0.003139 0.004210 0.005734 0.007870 0.011164
2026-02-22 0.001714 0.002294 0.003077 0.004230 0.005924 0.008379 0.012314
2026-03-01 0.001648 0.002250 0.003081 0.004341 0.006246 0.009101 0.013859
2026-03-08 0.001535 0.002131 0.002970 0.004269 0.006287 0.009396 0.014751
2026-03-15 0.001433 0.002018 0.002859 0.004188 0.006300 0.009642 0.015582
2026-03-22 0.001356 0.001938 0.002789 0.004161 0.006392 0.010019 0.016667
2026-03-29 0.001305 0.001892 0.002767 0.004205 0.006601 0.010601 0.018173
2026-04-05 0.001229 0.001807 0.002682 0.004151 0.006653 0.010941 0.019321
2026-04-12 0.001163 0.001733 0.002611 0.004114 0.006732 0.011342 0.020643
2026-04-19 0.001099 0.001659 0.002534 0.004059 0.006774 0.011674 0.021869
2026-04-26 0.001055 0.001613 0.002499 0.004072 0.006936 0.012241 0.023640
2026-05-03 0.001001 0.001549 0.002430 0.004021 0.006975 0.012575 0.024966
2026-05-10 0.000946 0.001479 0.002347 0.003938 0.006946 0.012772 0.026019
2026-05-17 0.000914 0.001445 0.002322 0.003957 0.007112 0.013372 0.028052
2026-05-24 0.000898 0.001437 0.002342 0.004059 0.007447 0.014352 0.031107
2026-05-31 0.000855 0.001381 0.002275 0.003993 0.007441 0.014613 0.032482
2026-06-07 0.000814 0.001326 0.002205 0.003918 0.007409 0.014815 0.033736
2026-06-14 0.000783 0.001287 0.002163 0.003893 0.007479 0.015245 0.035637